Articles written by Pierre Mouton

  • Chart of the Month – What’s going on? by Pierre Mouton, Dec 1 2017

    What’s going on?   The US yield curve is flattening at a steady pace. One of the most followed indicators, the 2-10 year differential, has more than halved since the beginning of the year, from 125 basis points to less than 60 bps today. Traditionally, a flattening yield curve is a warning signal for lower […] read more

  • Topix performance
    Chart of the Month – Japanese Yen: to hedge or not to hedge? by Pierre Mouton, Aug 2 2017

    Heart shaped hedges, Japanese gardens (« Johnson’s aeroplane” – INXS, 1984) When it comes to buying Japanese equities for a non-Japanese investor, this emotional question always resurfaces: how do I manage the currency risk for the seeds I sowed in the Japanese garden, i.e. do I hedge the JPY currency risk on my equities or […] read more

  • Chart of the Month – CAPE–ability in question by Pierre Mouton, Apr 3 2017

    CAPE–ability in question « In theory there’s not much difference between practice and theory – but in practice, there is. » Yogi Berra. More and more warnings are being sent about the unsustainability of the current CAPE ratio for the SP500 and that a correction should occur, based on the very high level of the […] read more

  • Happy 1st Anniversary DGC Notz Stucki Raymond James Strong Buy Selection by Pierre Mouton, Dec 23 2016

    DGC NOTZ STUCKI RAYMOND JAMES STRONG BUY SELECTION’S ASSETS CLIMB ABOVE € 50 MILLION FOR ITS FIRST ANNIVERSARY The fund exhibits a 19.14% performance since the beginning of the year What are the origins of this blockbuster? After a setup of several months, a partnership was created between Notz Stucki Group, one of the largest independent asset […] read more

  • Chart of the Month: 1986 – 2016 « LIVE TO TELL » (MADONNA) by Pierre Mouton, Dec 1 2016

    1986 – 2016. « LIVE TO TELL » (MADONNA) In 1986 Madonna was singing a very nice song titled « Live to Tell » which rapidly became a hit. Although the song was by no means a reference to financial markets, it’s easy to extrapolate with the title and imagine the great singer wondering what […] read more

  • Chart of the Month: European Sovereign Spreads: Time to be cautious? by Pierre Mouton, Oct 3 2016

    European Sovereign Spreads: Time to be cautious?   The chart here above illustrates the yield spread between the 10 years Italian BTP and the 10 years German Bund since 2010. The incredible 2011 spike in the midst of the European Sovereign crisis is striking on the chart, especially when compared to the relatively quiet period […] read more

  • Bond Equity Volatility
    Chart of the Month: What is it good for? by Pierre Mouton, Aug 2 2016

    What is it good for? Nothing! What is Japan’s desperate effort to lower its currency good for? Well when having a look at the chart below the answer is clear: nothing!  Japan’s central bank has increased its balance sheet by 20% just for 2016 so far, and the result is pretty surprising because during the same […] read more

  • Chart of the month: June Edition by Pierre Mouton, Jun 1 2016

    EURO DOLLAR PARITY: THE LOGICAL SONG This recurrent question which always comes from the audience when a financial presentation is held (outside of the US of course): “and, what do you think of the dollar?”…… and it very often embarrasses the speakers because you normally can illustrate a bearish or a bullish scenario with numerous […] read more

  • Chart of the month: March Edition by Pierre Mouton, Mar 2 2016

    What is cheap? what is expensive? Choose your camp!     So you have here two charts showing the evolution over more than 3 years of earnings, PE multiple and price for two distinct companies. One is supposedly a safe haven stock (company 1), paying a good dividend, on which losing money seems almost impossible […] read more

  • Chart of the month: February Edition by Pierre Mouton, Feb 1 2016

    The incredible bull market in bonds “You seem to have this nasty habit of surviving, Mister Bond”   When Kamal Khan tells James Bond that he has a nasty habit of surviving in “Octopussy” in 1983, he does not refer to the bond market obviously….. But funny enough the year the movie was released more or […] read more